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In this post, I want to take a step back and look forward. The goal is to cut through the noise and take a structured view on where the startup and venture ecosystem truly stands and where it is heading in 2026. This is not about short-term hype or tactical market commentary, but about the deeper forces shaping growth across the startup landscape in Europe, Switzerland, and globally.

I share my perspectives on which sectors are likely to attract meaningful capital, how artificial intelligence is evolving from experimentation into real economic infrastructure, and whether liquidity is finally returning to the system in a way that rewards substance over speculation. These are forward-looking convictions meant to be challenged, discussed, and revisited at the end of 2026 to see what played out, and what didn’t.

Looking Ahead: From Correction to Clarity

The question on everyone’s mind right now is whether 2026 will finally be the year the European and global startup ecosystem fully regains momentum or whether we are still moving through an extended transition phase. The past few years have been anything but linear. After the overheated market up to 2022, the ecosystem went through a sharp correction, marked by geopolitical uncertainty, highly selective capital deployment, and a severely constrained exit environment. In 2025, movement returned but in a focused and uneven way. Capital did flow again, yet far more selectively. We saw strong individual deals rather than broad-based momentum, the emergence of new but highly specialized funds, and a clear concentration of mega-funds around artificial intelligence. This sets the stage for the real question: does 2026 mark the year where the knot truly loosens, or does discipline continue to dominate growth?

Where Growth Will Come From in 2026

Looking at where capital is likely to flow in 2026, one pattern becomes increasingly clear: investors are no longer chasing the loudest hype cycles. Instead, capital is moving toward technologies that build resilience, solve structural problems, and create long-term competitive advantages. Artificial intelligence remains central, but not as a collection of standalone tools. AI is increasingly treated as infrastructure. A foundational layer that fundamentally reshapes how economic systems operate, from industrial production and logistics to healthcare diagnostics and decision-making in critical environments. Alongside AI, resilience technologies are gaining importance, particularly those focused on data security, critical infrastructure protection, and risk forecasting. These are no longer niche markets but core components of stable, modern economies, especially in a world shaped by ongoing global disruptions.

Healthcare stands out as another major beneficiary, particularly where AI enables new approaches to diagnostics, life sciences, and personalized medicine. This is a sector with both massive societal relevance and strong economic fundamentals. Beyond that, longer-term opportunities continue to emerge in robotics, quantum technologies, next-generation mobility, space technologies, and defense-related innovation. While the full economic impact of these areas will unfold over longer time horizons, meaningful innovation is already happening, and capital is positioning itself early.

Europe’s Moment: Visibility Through Substance

Geographically, 2026 is shaping up to be a year where Europe becomes more visible as a technology region. Not by copying Silicon Valley, but by leaning into its own strengths. The United States will remain dominant in large-scale platforms, consumer technology, and capital-intensive growth models. However, Europe is gaining relevance in strategically critical domains: AI in regulated and safety-critical applications, industrial and manufacturing technologies, healthcare innovation, infrastructure resilience, deep tech, robotics, and advanced energy and materials. What’s changing is that Europe is no longer just the place where great research happens. Increasingly, strong European tech companies are scaling locally, building value creation at home, and forming meaningful clusters across Switzerland, Germany, Scandinavia, and beyond. Europe may not replace the U.S. as the global tech powerhouse in 2026, but it is becoming a serious, stable, and increasingly indispensable player defined by substance rather than noise.

The End of Easy Capital and Shallow Narratives

At the same time, some areas are clearly losing attractiveness. Generic AI applications without depth, products that merely wrap large models without proprietary data, defensible positioning, or clear business value are facing a reality check. Similarly, interchangeable “feature SaaS” products struggle in an environment that now rewards platform power and real differentiation. Pure consumer convenience models that previously depended on abundant capital and aggressive marketing are under pressure, as are capital-intensive ventures without a credible path to economic sustainability, particularly in parts of the mobility sector. Capital has become far more selective, and expectations around quality have risen sharply.

AI in 2026: From Hype to Industrialization

AI itself reaches a decisive phase in 2026. The market is shifting away from experimentation toward industrialization. Costs related to compute, infrastructure, governance, and compliance force discipline and expose weak business models. AI is no longer judged by how impressive a demo looks, but by whether it fundamentally improves core processes, accelerates research, or reshapes value chains. Data quality and access emerge as the decisive competitive advantage. Companies with proprietary, high-quality datasets especially in healthcare, industry, energy, and scientific research will define the next wave of winners.

Where AI Creates Real Economic Value

The greatest economic value in 2026 is likely to be created where AI becomes deeply embedded into enterprise operations, supported by robust infrastructure layers focused on reliability, security, and domain specificity. AI combined with hardware and robotics shows meaningful breakthroughs, while edge AI continues to build long-term strategic importance. One emerging constraint is energy availability: data centers and compute infrastructure are scaling faster than new power generation capacity, making energy a potential limiting factor for AI expansion.

Liquidity Returns – Carefully and Selectively

Liquidity is another critical topic. 2026 is unlikely to be a miracle year, but it also won’t be a year of empty promises. IPOs will return selectively, especially in the U.S., favoring companies with robust business models, clear market leadership, and real cash generation. Europe will likely see individual, well-positioned champions rather than a broad IPO wave. Strategic M&A activity, however, is expected to increase significantly, as large corporates face growing pressure to acquire innovation rather than build it internally. Secondaries will quietly play an even more important role, providing partial liquidity for founders, employees, and funds, and injecting much-needed movement into the system without relying on public market hype.

Fundraising in 2026: Harder, but Fairer

Fundraising in 2026 will not become easier but it will become fairer. Capital is available, but expectations are higher. Investors focus on real value creation, technical differentiation, access to data, and defensible market positioning. Early-stage funding remains possible for teams with deep expertise solving meaningful structural problems, while Series A and B rounds become the true quality filter. Founder quality, execution discipline, and strategic clarity matter more than ever. The era of growth-at-all-costs is over; building resilient, scalable businesses defines success.

A More Mature Startup Ecosystem

As we move through 2026, the startup ecosystem continues to mature. The narrative shifts away from hype toward durability, from volume toward quality, and from speed toward substance. 2026 rewards those who build real value, solve real problems, and think long-term.